Misdiagnosing the Iranian Problem
The problem has been stated: Iran might be producing a nuclear arsenal.
The solution: have an agreement that will stop them from having nuclear military capability.
I think both the problem and the solution are wrongly defined.
I do not consider Iran with nuclear capability to be a threat. It will not dare to use it against Israel although it repeatedly makes noise that it wants to destroy that country.
Because it is a known secret that Israel possesses about two hundred nuclear devices. It has a nuclear submarine permanently positioned in the Strait of Hormuz, facing Iran, armed most probably with nuclear armaments.
If Iran drops one nuclear bomb on Israel, Iran will cease to exist.
I have never been afraid of the Masada syndrome that if Israel’s existence is threatened it will commit suicide. No way. I believe, if such a situation develops it will be a Sampson’s revenge. Samson from the Samson and Delilah fame in the Old Testament. He was tortured and then did commit suicide but in such a way that he took all the Philistines with him by destroying the temple they were in.
Here is the Armageddon scenario: Iran attacking Israel with nuclear devices and Israel reacting back with nuclear capability. That will trigger the Muslim world to react against the West and that will start worldwide nuclear conflicts that even imagination will have a difficulty to describe.
I believe Iranians are smart people. They know what we know about the Israeli nuclear capability. About the nuclear submarines. None of this is secret. And they know Israel will not take a nuclear attack lying down. So, I trust them to be smart enough to shout, threaten but not to act.
I do not think Iran will use the nuclear arsenal it wants to develop to attack anyone. It is needed to deter anyone from attacking them. Furthermore, nuclear capability provides power that the Muslim world will look up to them and thus it will facilitate their ascension to leadership of the Muslim world.
So what, then, is the problem?
Iran is one of the strongest nations in the Middle East. It is belligerent. It has a proven record that it supports belligerent movements around the world: the Hezbollah, the Hamas and others that we do not know their complicated names.
That is the reason the other Arab nations in the area are dismayed at the agreement Obama has pushed through. Iran is undermining the regimes of the area by supporting terrorists. And not only those that terrorize in the region. They bombed a synagogue in Argentina. How much further can you get???
Removing sanctions will make Iran rich and flush with money. Money with which they can support terrorists and not only those that will terrorize Israel. Or the Jews in general. Are they not screaming “Death to America!!’ America the Satan.
Iran is dangerous not because of their nuclear devices. They are dangerous with their intentions and after the removal of sanctions they can use their money, lots of money, to subvert regimes, to support terrorists. To destabilize the democratic world.
Iran’s credo. That is the problem. Iran’s intention. Declared intentions. Intentions they carry out.
By misdiagnosing the problem, we have come to some agreement that might, at best, delay them from developing and producing a military nuclear device, but by removing the sanctions we make them strong enough to threaten us with terrorists.
Redefine the problem.
If the problem is their religious zeal to destabilize the western world, the solution should be to increase the severity of the sanctions until the religious junta that is ruling Iran falls. Use the military nuclear capability not as the problem but as an excuse to impose those sanctions.
Ichak Kalderon Adizes