Obama: A Performance Review

During the 2008 election for the U.S. Presidency, whenever I lectured on the topic of organizational lifecycles, I would ask the people who attended my lectures: Where do they think the United States is in its lifecycle?There was a near-consensus that the country is on the aging side of the curve.When was the United States in its Prime?Sixty years ago, in the 1950s.What are the signs of aging? One of the major signs is the increasing (A), bigger governmental machinery, and growing government expenses as a percentage of GNP.In my writing about lifecycles, I have often said that the increase in (A) that occurred in the United States during the 1930s was a desirable change, which took the country from the Go-Go stage through Adolescence to Prime. But as usual, what is desirable at one stage of the lifecycle can be dysfunctional at other stages. The (A), the interventionist role of government, legitimized by Keynesian economics, mushroomed and became a cause of aging.As the system starts to age, it is also falling apart. The first obvious signs of disintegration could be seen in the campaign slogan for Richard Nixon’s 1968 Presidential election: “Bring us together.”Typically, as the system ages, people look for leadership that will provide both (E) and (I). That is what Obama promised, and he was elected– to drive a car heading downhill without brakes.How well has he done?He is definitely trying to change the system–major changes–and predictably, as Machiavelli once pointed out, if you want to be hated, try making big changes.And he is getting more hate than any previous President in my lifetime. Bush was despised. Obama is hated.To judge by the media, he cannot do one thing right.Is it only because he is making change happen, or is there more to it?In my work managing corporate lifecycles, I have seen that when a system approaches the recrimination stage, an advanced stage of aging, people attack their leaders. They are experiencing pain, but instead of analyzing what is wrong with the system that is causing the pain, they personalize the cause and attack their leaders.I suggest to you that no matter who was elected, John McCain or any of the other Presidential contenders, every one of them would by now be in the same “soup”, Obama is in, criticized endlessly no matter what he or she did.The next President will have it even worse. His polls will plummet faster–and even sooner–than Obama’s.Obama is trying to fix the system. Even if you do not agree with his efforts, you must recognize that he is acting. If he did not act, he would be criticized even more.He is in a no-win situation: If he acts, he is criticized (whatever action he takes); and if he does not act, he is criticized for his aloofness.In other words, the criticism of Obama is generated not by his actions but by the United States’ location on its lifecycle. And it will only get worse.If my analysis of the United States’ position on its lifecycle is correct, then in the not-so-distant future we will see unrest, breakdown, fighting between the haves and have-nots, riots, and the rise of anti-Semitism.Sincerely,Dr. Ichak Kalderon Adizes